2017
Before the first major Bitcoin boom
An early-cycle comparison that includes the 2017 rally, the 2018 drawdown and several later market cycles.
Explore the Bitcoin 2017 scenario →Crypto Calculator / All calculators / Bitcoin vs S&P 500
Run the equal-dollar test
The tool uses the first common weekly-close observation on or after your selected date. Both assets are valued using their own weekly-close data, with the same initial dollar amount.
Compare a historic investment
Bitcoin is priced in USD; the S&P 500 is represented by the ^GSPC price index.
Try a market window:
Loading the live weekly-close series…
Portfolio value over time
Each line begins with the same initial amount. Values reflect the weekly-close price path after the selected date.
Bitcoin vs S&P 500: the short answer
There is no truthful one-line answer to whether Bitcoin is “better” than the S&P 500. The historical outcome changes with the entry week, holding period and exit date. This calculator therefore starts with an equal-dollar comparison, then shows both the highest later portfolio value and the largest weekly-close decline from a prior peak.
That last point matters. A return number on its own can conceal the path required to achieve it. Research comparing the two return series has found Bitcoin’s return distribution to be more heavy-tailed than the S&P 500’s, with materially larger loss severity under the study’s risk measures.[1] This page does not turn that observation into a prediction. It simply makes the historical trade-off visible for a date you choose.
Read this correctly: a higher historic peak is not a realised return unless an investor sold there. The calculator displays the later peak to show the opportunity and the subsequent weekly-close drawdown to show the path.
Three useful historical entry windows
Use the live tool for the exact current result. These entry windows are useful because they test the comparison across a major crypto bull market, the COVID recovery and a near-cycle-top entry.
2020
Recovery-period entry
Compare an equal-dollar investment made during the 2020 recovery with the subsequent equity and crypto paths.
Explore the Bitcoin 2020 scenario →2021
Near a major Bitcoin cycle high
A useful reminder that entry point changes the result. The same tool shows the later peak and the decline from it.
Explore the Bitcoin 2021 scenario →What this comparison measures
It measures the change in the market price of Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index from a selected historical week, using identical starting dollars. It is a transparent price-path comparison, not a personalised investment model.
What it deliberately does not measure
It excludes S&P 500 dividends, transaction costs, spreads, custody costs, taxes, staking, rebalancing and individual circumstances. Read the full calculation methodology →
Why the S&P 500 figure is a price return, not total return
The S&P 500 series used here is ^GSPC, the price index. It captures changes in the index level but does not add back dividends. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis explicitly describes its S&P 500 series as a price index that does not contain dividends.[2] That makes the comparison clear and reproducible, but it is not the same as modelling a dividend-reinvesting S&P 500 ETF.
| Element | How this page handles it |
|---|---|
| Starting amount | The same dollar amount is used for both assets. |
| Entry price | The first available weekly close on or after the selected date. |
| Current value | The historical units are valued at the latest available weekly close. |
| Peak value | The highest value reached by those historical units after entry. |
| Drawdown | The greatest fall in the weekly-close portfolio value from a preceding weekly-close high. |
| Equity benchmark | S&P 500 price index only; dividend reinvestment is not included. |
Why “which won?” is the wrong question on its own
The more useful historic question is: what did the return path look like after a particular entry? Bitcoin has experienced periods of exceptional appreciation and large subsequent declines. The S&P 500 has its own drawdowns, but the two paths have historically differed materially in volatility. A date-specific chart makes that distinction harder to ignore than a headline percentage.
For a broader crypto-only comparison, see The 3-Year Test: Bitcoin vs Ethereum vs Solana. For the sharp 2020 cross-asset market shock, see The 2020 COVID Crash: What Missing the Bottom Cost You. You can also browse the complete Bitcoin investment-calculator hub or every scenario in the calculator directory.
Frequently asked questions
Is Bitcoin better than the S&P 500? +
Not as a universal historic rule. The result depends on when the comparison begins and ends. This page shows one selected historical window and the return path, rather than treating a single result as a recommendation.
Does the S&P 500 result include dividends? +
No. The calculator uses the S&P 500 price index (^GSPC), not a dividend-reinvested total-return series. The stock-market result should therefore not be read as a complete ETF return simulation.
Why are the Bitcoin and S&P 500 latest dates sometimes different? +
Bitcoin trades continuously while the U.S. equity market has trading hours and holidays. The tool uses each asset’s latest available weekly close and displays the applicable entry date for both series.
Why does the calculator begin in 2016? +
The comparison is designed around a common ten-year weekly data window for both assets. That avoids mixing incompatible sampling frequencies and keeps the chart and calculations consistent.
Are taxes, fees and inflation included? +
No. The figures are nominal, pre-tax and before fees, spreads, custody costs and any other personal factors. They are for historical education only, not financial advice.
Sources and data notes
- Live calculation data are fetched through CryptoRetail’s price proxy from Yahoo Finance chart data, sampled as weekly closes.
- The S&P 500 benchmark is the
^GSPCprice index. FRED describes this series as excluding dividends: FRED — S&P 500 (SP500). - Risk-context reference: Nzokem and Maposa, Bitcoin versus S&P 500 Index: Return and Risk Analysis (2024).